Everett, Massachusetts 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS61 KBOX 010526
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1226 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain and fog will transition to snow near and north of I-
90 later tonight with slippery travel expected to develop overnight.
Any lingering snow should depart by mid to late Saturday morning,
which will be followed by blustery and colder weather with falling
temperatures Saturday afternoon. A fast-moving Alberta Clipper low
pressure area brings light snow accumulation north of the
Massachusetts Turnpike Sunday night into Monday morning.
Temperatures then trend near to above normal through the middle of
next week, with our weather pattern turning more unsettled again by
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1020 PM Update:

Short update to account for current conditions and expected
near-term trends.

Increasing northerly flow is very slowly cooling the
atmospheric column in northern MA to just south of the Route 2
corridor, where precip has transitioned over from plain rain to
a clumpy wet snow. The slow columnar cooling is also seen in
KBOX correlation coefficient and differential reflectivity,
which has not moved very much from a rough line from central
Worcester County eastward to the North Shore/Lynn area. South of
that line, which includes most of temps are still warm enough
(upper 30s to low 40s) for light to moderate rain.

Really no major change to snow accumulations in northern MA,
with a couple inches of of snow from the Mass Pike northward,
with local spots nearing 3-4". However as indicated in BUFKIT
fcst profiles, the snowgrowth layer becomes increasingly sapped
of moisture as drier air works in aloft while there remains
stout lower-level RH. This dryslot is already starting to work
into Berkshire County in MA and into southern VT per low and
mid- level water vapor imagery, leading to a reduction in radar
reflectivity into western MA. That may also lend itself to more
of a freezing drizzle mixed with light snow look, as the
snowgrowth layer dries out, with precip gradually coming to an
end as we move into the pre-dawn hrs. Road conditions thus may
become slippery in northern MA near/north of the Mass Pike,
although the icing effect of any freezing drizzle could be
limited as it falls into a light snowpack.

In most of CT, RI and eastern/southeast MA...with northerly
cooling flow not especially strong, looks like temps will be
slow to cool down supportive of light rains for the majority of
the event, only ending as a brief period of light snow and/or
freezing drizzle toward the pre-dawn hrs. Little to no
accumulations are expected for these areas.

Previous discussion:

Key Messages...

* Rain changes to snow near & north of I-90 this evening
* Brief period of freezing rain in northwest MA during the changeover
* 1-2" of snow I-90 northward with localized 3-4" N of route 2

Details...

Periods of rain/drizzle and fog were in progress across southern New
England at mid to late afternoon. As a wave of low pressure tracks
near the south coast this evening...winds will shift to the north.
This will allow colder air to work southward into southern New
England. Thermal profiles indicate that rain will transition to snow
near and north of Route 2 between 6 and 9 pm and onto the I-90
corridor between 9 pm and midnight. There may also be a brief period
of freezing rain again in northwest MA during the transition. The
models have a decent swath of mid level frontogenesis this evening
into the overnight hours...so a period of accumulating snow is
expected. Currently...thinking 1-2" of snow is likely near and
especially north of I-90 with perhaps some localized 3-4" amounts
possible north of Route 2. Snow amounts are tricky because there
will initially be some melting...so the timing/intensity of the snow
will be the deciding factor if those localized higher amounts are
realized.

Given the above...we opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
the higher terrain of far western Franklin/far western Hampshire
county. This is where we expect 2-3" of snow with localized 4"
amounts possible along with a brief period of icing possible during
the transition. Across the rest of northern MA...we will issue a
special weather statement for 1-2" of snow with perhaps some
localized 3-4" north of Route 2 towards the NH border.

Meanwhile...south of I-90 rain may briefly mix with or change to
snow towards or a bit after midnight. Accumulations should generally
be a dusting to less than 1" for most locations.

Temperatures will have dropped into the upper 20s to the lower 30s
in most locations by daybreak with some middle 30s towards the Cape
and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Lingering snow departs eastern New England by mid-late morning Sat
* Blustery & turning colder Sat with temps falling through the 20s

Details...

Saturday...

Lingering low level moisture and shortwave energy may allow for some
light snow to persist into mid morning on Sat. The NAM model seems
most robust with this scenario...but given the cold air working into
the region we may see some of the lingering moisture squeezed out.
Either way...any snow will depart the coast by mid-late Sat morning.
Otherwise...the main story will be a return to blustery and colder
weather. Skies will trend to partly to mostly sunny later Sat
morning into the afternoon from west to east. 925T will be dropping
into the -10C to -14C range should allow surface temps to fall
through the 20s during the afternoon. This will be accompanied by
northwest wind gusts of 20-30 mph with perhaps a few gusts up to 35
mph across the Cape and Nantucket. This will result in Wind Chills
in the teens with some single digits possible in the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points...

* Dry and cold Sat night. Clouds increase on Sunday.

* Minor snow accumulation (C-3") north of the Mass Pike Sun night
  into early Monday, with possible minor impact to Monday AM commute.

* Near to above normal temps thru midweek.

* Unsettled weather with potential for mixed precip around Thursday.

Saturday night into Sunday...

High pressure takes hold for much of the weekend bringing quiet and
cold weather. The result Saturday night will be calm winds, clear
skies, and resultant very cold temperatures thanks to efficient
radiational cooling. Temperatures dip well into the single digits as
a result, with low teens along the immediate coasts. Sunday we`ll
see temperatures moderating a bit as winds turn to the SE then S as
the center of the high crosses just to our north. Cloudcover
steadily fills in through the day ahead of our next system
overnight.

Sunday night through Monday...

Another Alberta clipper passes by to our north with a weak mid level
shortwave and low level jet providing enough forcing to act on half
inch PWATs producing widespread precipitation, potentially snow for
some locations. Temperatures should be cold enough to support snow,
at the very least for locations north of the MA pike. Similarly to
Friday night, anywhere from a coating to 3 inches is possible.
Ensemble guidance now indicates a 90%+ chance of at least an inch of
snow in the Berkshires with a 40-50% chance into eastern
Massachusetts. Looking at 3+ inches those probabilities are
essentially nil in both the EPS and GEFS. Beyond that into Monday
drier air filters in and but winds will become increasingly breezy
as the pressure gradient tightens.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Flow becomes more zonal next week with largely quiet weather. The
next system to watch looks to be ahead of another shortwave, in the
Wednesday night/Thursday period. Given a trend toward warmer than
average temperatures, we may see our first shot in quite a while at
highs in the 50s on Thursday ahead of a strong cold front. This
frontal system has the potential to bring mixed precipitation with
it but details are unclear at this point. Much colder air is on tap
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Saturday: High confidence in trends, moderate on
exact timing.

IFR-LIFR cigs with visbys ranging from 1 to 6 SM in rain, snow,
fog. Steadier precip gradually decreases 07-11z with areas of
drizzle or freezing drizzle, soonest north and west and later
south and east. Light snow accums up to 2" for BAF-ORH-BED and
perhaps a light coating at BOS, with little to nil icing from
any freezing drizzle. By daybreak, ceilings should start to
trend to IFR-MVFR range. Light northerly winds then to become
NW and increase to around 10-12 kt by daybreak.

Today: High confidence.

Ceilings improve to VFR during the morning, but we may see MVFR
ceilings and a period of ocean effect snow/rain showers along
the immediate eastern MA coast ~12-15z. VFR by late-AM in all
areas. NW winds 12-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt, up to 30 kt Cape
and Islands.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds around 10-12 kt early, though speeds decrease thru
the overnight to under 5 kt for most, up to 10 kt Cape and
Islands.

Sunday: High confidence.

VFR, though with increasing midlevel cloud cover late in the
day. Low risk for flurries or light snow showers toward early
Sun night. Light NW winds become SE around 5-10 kt late in the
day.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. IFR with mix of rain/snow to
trend to period of light snow 07-10z. Snow may become mixed with
freezing drizzle 10-12z. Accums C-1". Gradual improvement to
MVFR-VFR Sat, but possible period of ocean effect -SHSN 12-15z
before trending VFR. Light NE/N winds to trend NNW around 10-12
kt/gusts to 25 kt.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. IFR cigs with light RA/DZ
thru 10z before conditions slowly trend MVFR-VFR by 13z. N/NW
winds increasing to around 10-13 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SN, chance RA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN, chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Tonight and Saturday...High Confidence.

Low pressure tracks across the south coast this evening. This will
result in winds shifting to the N tonight with gusts of 20 to 30
knots developing toward daybreak. Winds will shift to the NNW on Sat
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots with perhaps a few brief gusts up to 35
knots. However...opted to go with small craft advisories across all
waters given they are more representative of the expected
conditions.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of
snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow, chance of
rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002-
     008.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ231>234-250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-
     237-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/BW
NEAR TERM...Frank/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Loconto/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP